The Elon Poll Supports Passing a Marriage Amendment
Yesterday, Elon University released a poll that was widely reported as indicating that support for a Marriage Amendment is waning. But, that characterization is untrue. Careful analysis of the Elon Poll proves that it actually shows an overwhelming support for passing a Marriage Amendment in North Carolina.
For the first time in a poll on marriage in North Carolina, respondents were offered the opportunity to pick a middle ground between traditional marriage and homosexual marriage. Twenty-eight percent (28%) said they support civil unions or domestic partnerships, but not marriage. An overwhelming 46.9% said they oppose any legal recognition for same-sex couples, so that is a total of 74.9% of respondents who said they do not support marriage for same-sex couples. Only 21% support full marriage rights for same-sex couples. These results probably reflect the tendency of some American voters to go toward the middle, if offered an option that has the appearance of being less harsh. Most people don't even understand that civil unions and domestic partnerships give homosexuals all the rights and benefits of marriage without calling it "marriage." But it is important to note, that the vast majority (almost 75%) do not support same-sex marriage in the Elon Poll results.
Another flaw in the Elon Poll is the fact that it asks the question in negative terms. In questioning respondents about their support/opposition to a Marriage Amendment, the poll characterizes the Amendment as "preventing same-sex marriage" rather than "defining marriage as the union between a man and a woman." Phrasing a question in negative terms will elicit a more negative response.
Finally, Elon's polling method involves asking a leading question. One of its questions starts with a statement that, "State law recognizes marriage to be by the consent of a male and female and makes it illegal for two individuals of the same sex to be married or have their marriage recognized by the state of North Carolina..." The question then follows: "Knowing that there is already a law that prevents same sex marriages in North Carolina, would you oppose or support an amendment to the North Carolina constitution that would prevent same sex marriages?" Any good attorney knows that this is a leading question. The question implies the answer—that the Amendment is unnecessary. Had the question also explained that the law preventing same sex marriage in North Carolina could be overturned by a court (and such laws have been overturned by courts in nine (9) states already), perhaps the question would have been fairly stated. But it does not explain the threat to our marriage laws, just that we already have laws preventing same-sex marriage.
The methodology of the poll is also problematic. It polled only 620 households, and didn't even focus on likely voters. Nor does the methodology reflect that there was any attempt to reflect the actual ratio of registered democrat to registered republican voters in the state (45% to 34% respectively).
The Elon Poll is in line with a poll conducted in February by the Civitas Institute in Raleigh. It found that 76% of likely voters support a Constitutional Amendment defining marriage as between one man and one woman, only .5% higher than the Elon Poll results of those who do not support marriage rights for same-sex couples. In both the Elon and Civitas Polls, 21% of likely voters are opposed to a Marriage Amendment. Even the undecided vote is almost identical: 4.5% in the Elon Poll; 4% in the Civitas Poll.
The next time a poll is released, the press needs to analyze it, not just make uninformed assumptions that feed their biases.
